Recep Tayyip Erdogan - The Sultan's pause is over*

“Why don 't we just call it the Islamic League, instead of the Arab League” Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested to his guests while addressing the Turkish-Arab Congress on Higher Education in Istanbul, in late April. His remarks could be interpreted as a vision to transform the (purely political) Arab League, into a broader union of all countries with a dominant Muslim population. He then spoke of the need for unity among the Islamic world, beyond the Shia-Sunni divisions, and the need for common fight against terrorist Islamic groups.

At the same Congress, the speaker of the Parliament (considered a faithful ally of Erdogan) called for the upcoming institutional amendment to exclude any mention of a secular state and for Turkey to have a religious constitution. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu immediately contradicted him and assured that there is no question about changing the secular nature of the Turkish state. “The state should have an equal distance from all religious faiths” President Erdogan said, the next day, in televised comments during a visit to the Zagreb, Croatia.

Just a few days later, while on an official journey abroad, Davutoglu was informed he was stripped of his powers within the AKP party and within a week he had announced his resignation as Prime Minister. His demise -according to most analysts- was caused by his attempt to act independently (e.g. by negotiating the Refugee Agreement with the European Union, tied to free visa for Turks travelling to Europe and opening a few chapters of the country's EU membership negotiations), while he did not support Erdogan's plan to transform Turkey from a parliamentary into a presidential republic. Erdogan wasted no time before telling Europe “you go your way and we go ours” when it was made clear that Europe demanded the reform of the infamous Turkish “terrorism laws” which are used to oppress and -literally- bomb cities with large Kurdish population.

Davutoglu's successor, Binali Yildirim, to be officially elected as the sole candidate of AKP in an extraordinary party congress on next Sunday, May 22, is considered to support Erdogan's plans to change the nature of the Turkish state. He has served under him as Transport minister in three governments, managed several major infrastructure projects (not without controversy) but was dropped from government in December 2013, after Turkish prosecutors taped the winning bidders for Istanbul's 3rd airport, complaining that Yildirim pressed them to buy a major pro-government newspaper.

From “Islamist” to “progressive” and back

Erdogan as a student was involved in Islamist political movements and proved a fervent Islamist as the mayor of Istanbul (1994-98). So fervent as to be convicted to a 10-month prison sentence and lifetime ban from politics, for “inciting hatred based on religious differences” in a speech he made in Siirt in late 1997. He twice managed to have the sentence converted into a monetary fine but lost a final appeal and served 120 days (in relative luxury) at the Pinarhisar Prison at Kirklareli, near Istanbul. “This is just a pause. We will continue to work on the projects we have worked on together in the past” he told the crowd of tens of thousands people who gathered to see him off from Istanbul to prison.

After his release, he abandoned openly Islamist politics, and established the moderate conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001, which under co-founder Abdullah Gül won the 2002 elections and formed the government which immediately annulled Erdogan's ban from politics. He thus run at a by-election in Siirt, in March 2003, won a seat in Parliament and assumed the office of Prime Minister. International media who previously referred to him as “the Islamist mayor of Istanbul” dropped the religious adjective and hailed the “progressive politician”.

As Prime Minister, Erdogan displayed some political tolerance, while managing the economic recovery of Turkey (after the 2001 financial crisis), the accession negotiations for Turkey’s membership of the European Union, the de-escalation in the conflict with Kurdish militants, and a vast array of infrastructure projects. The “liberalization” of labour laws attracted Foreign Direct Investments which helped the revival of the economy, and internal consumption was fueled by a flood of bank lending.

In the same time Erdogan allowed the Islamic headscarf to be worn in public offices, universities and schools -for the first time after the foundation of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, by Kemal Ataturk, as a secular nation-state. He stripped the Army from ultimate control of politics (arrangement also devised by Ataturk to guarantee the democratic and secular nature of the Turkish state, in co-operation with the non-executive President). Subsequently Erdogan initiated the institutional transition to a presidential system, a reform which passed through the Taxim Square violent repression of demonstrators, numerous arrests of academics, journalists and simple dissident citizens who dared express concern on the country's path towards authoritarian rule. It culminated in the recent mass bombing of Kurdish cities in Turkey and the country's active involvement in the Syrian mess.

As President of the Republic (an originally mostly ceremonial office) Erdogan has now secured nearly total control of political life in Turkey. He is preparing further constitutional change -to be put on referendum- that would make the President the sole ultimate authority, with powers overriding any institution. Even if the religious nature of the state is not included in the constitution, the powers allowed to the President will not seem very distant from that of the Sultans of the Ottoman Empire. The post-Ottoman Turkish state as envisioned by Ataturk will then be a thing of the past. And this could be the end of the “pause” Erdogan mentioned before entering Pinarhisar Prison 17 years ago. 

*First published in German translation at http://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_kommentare/Der-Sultan-hat-seine-Pause-beendet-article17733976.html